Trump, Farage, Labour and that Senedd budget: How will politics play out in 2025?

Bridgend: So, 2025 is supposed to be an election-free year in Wales. Sounds great, right? But honestly, with how things are going politically, I wouldn’t bet on it. The whole scene feels as shaky as a drunk trying to walk on ice.

Even without elections, politics is still buzzing. Just look at the start of this new political year. On Monday, Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated as President again. This time, he’s coming in hot, ready to stir things up both at home and abroad. His social media team has given him the green light to say whatever he wants, and it looks like Greenland and Canada are on his radar.

Trump’s already making waves, claiming that Greenland would love to join the U.S. and suggesting Canada should be our 51st state. Can you believe it?

Meanwhile, Keir Starmer is still finding his feet as Prime Minister after a surprising election win. It seems like his cautious approach is making him less of a strong leader. He’s learning the hard way that just talking about “change” without explaining what that means can lead to some serious challenges.

Now, let’s talk about Wales. The Senedd is back in action, and they’re diving into the Welsh Government’s draft budget. This budget is crucial because Labour doesn’t have enough votes to push it through. If they struggle now, what will happen when things get tighter in 2025-26?

Every party in the Senedd is throwing around the word “change” as they debate the budget. But let’s be real: if they can’t back that up with real substance, they’re going to face some backlash.

Eluned Morgan, the new First Minister, has a tough job ahead. This could be her only full year in power, and she’s trying to balance listening to the public while also managing the government. But honestly, it feels like she’s just trying to play it safe.

She’s been on a listening tour, but I can’t help but think she didn’t hear anything new. Her focus seems to be on small changes and trying to sell the benefits of Labour’s governance in both London and Cardiff. But the truth is, the relationship between these two governments hasn’t really delivered much for Wales.

And don’t even get me started on the HS2 funding. The UK Government has promised improvements, but it’s hard to believe they’ll deliver anything substantial. The lack of fair funding for Wales is a real issue, and it’s frustrating to see the same old problems persist.

Politics is about more than just who’s in charge; it’s about the systems and context too. Welsh Labour has been in power for a long time, and that can lead to a sense of entitlement. Voters are getting tired, and they’re looking for real change.

When the next Senedd election rolls around, it won’t just be about how likable Eluned Morgan is. She’s tied to a party that’s starting to feel worn out after 25 years in charge. Voters will have options, and they’re not afraid to explore them.

Welsh Labour needs to reflect on what it can do differently. Relying on old tactics like “keeping the Tories out” won’t cut it anymore. The political landscape is shifting, and they need to adapt.

Populism is on the rise, and it’s not just a Wales thing. Just look at the elections happening around the world. Reform UK is stepping into the mix, and while some think they lack a clear platform, I think that might actually work in their favor. People are looking for something different, and they might not care about specific policies.

But here’s the kicker: if the public isn’t engaged with the Senedd elections, it could go either way. Next year’s campaign might be a bit of a circus, especially with social media playing a huge role. Welsh Labour has a lot of work to do if they want to stay in power after 2026.

As the Senedd expands, we need to see better politicians stepping up. It’s not just about diversity; it’s about having people who can really dig into the issues and ask the tough questions. We need fresh faces who aren’t just following party lines.

Lee Waters, the former Deputy Transport Minister, is stepping down, and that’s a shame. He’s someone who challenged the status quo and asked the hard questions. We need more of that kind of thinking in the Senedd.

To make real changes, political parties need to take advantage of the current system. They should pick candidates who are independent thinkers, not just the same old faces. It’s time for a shake-up.

Otherwise, we risk ending up with more politicians who all look and sound the same. Loyalty to the party shouldn’t be the only thing that matters in candidate selection.

We need strong leadership, but right now, it feels like we’re just getting more of the same. Lee Waters raised a good point about the balance between leading and following public opinion. Are we ready for real change, or are we just going to stick to flashy ideas with no substance?

Last week, I watched Hamilton, and it got me thinking about George Washington’s decision to step down after his presidency. He set a precedent for limiting terms, showing that sometimes stepping back is the best move for democracy.

With Trump and Farage making waves, it’s clear that morality isn’t a big part of the current political climate. But we need to pay attention to why they’re gaining support. People are fed up with the status quo and want real change. All parties need to step up and provide meaningful arguments for change, or they risk falling into the trap of populism.

* Laura McAllister is a sports-mad academic from Bridgend. She is Professor at Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and former captain of Wales Women’s international football team.