Thirty years on, is Quebec headed for another independence referendum?

MONTREAL: So, it’s been a wild ride for Quebec’s independence movement. Remember when Jean-François Lisée said it might come back? That was back in 2015. Fast forward to 2018, and the Parti Québécois took a hit, losing seats to the Coalition Avenir Québec, led by François Legault. He promised no referendum, and folks seemed to like that, giving him a solid majority.

Legault even mentioned how many Quebecers were tired of the independence debate that’s been around for decades. But now, as we hit the 30-year mark since the last referendum, things are looking a bit different. Legault isn’t as popular anymore, and the PQ, with a fresh face at the helm, is gaining traction in the polls.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the new PQ leader, is bringing some youthful energy to the party. He’s been making waves, and it seems like people are starting to pay attention again. There’s talk of a potential referendum by 2030, which could really shake things up.

Émile Simard, who leads the PQ’s youth wing, thinks the younger crowd might be ready to reconsider independence. He grew up in a sovereigntist family and feels the reasons for wanting independence have shifted, especially with climate change being a hot topic.

But here’s the kicker: even with the PQ’s rise, support for independence hasn’t really budged much. It’s been hovering around 35% for years. David Heurtel, a political analyst, points out that the younger generation isn’t really feeling the independence vibe like they used to.

Simard, who’s only 22, says many young people haven’t even thought about independence seriously. For them, it’s more of a hypothetical discussion. He believes a referendum campaign could change that, making them think about what independence really means.

Interestingly, while young Quebecers aren’t super into sovereignty, they’re not exactly waving the federalist flag either. Charles Breton from the Institute for Research on Public Policy says they’re just unsure because the topic hasn’t been front and center.

Breton also worries that if a new independence movement gains momentum, many Canadians might not care as much as they did back in the day. In 1995, there were huge rallies to keep Quebec in Canada, but now, who would even lead that charge?

With a potential Conservative government in Ottawa, the dynamics could shift again. Heurtel mentions that a change in leadership could impact the PQ’s chances, especially since Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre isn’t seen as a strong opponent for nationalists.

But Simard thinks a Conservative government could actually push the idea of independence further, especially if people feel their values aren’t being represented. It’s a tricky situation, and many are watching closely.

Breton believes it’s hard to picture Poilievre as the face of unity during a referendum campaign. Trudeau, on the other hand, might be better suited for that role. Some even suggest he should step up and prepare to defend Canada if the independence question comes back into play.

As it stands, the Bloc Québécois might become the official Opposition soon, which could give the independence movement a boost. But the PQ might also face competition from the provincial Liberals, who are gearing up for a leadership race.

For now, it seems independence isn’t the top concern for most people. But with the next Quebec election on the horizon, the old debate might just resurface. Simard is optimistic, saying a referendum is on the way, and it’s time to settle this long-standing question in Quebec.