Possible Scenarios for the Liberal Government in Ottawa
As the Liberal government faces uncertainty, various outcomes loom for Trudeau and his party in the coming weeks
Ottawa, Canada, Liberal Government, Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland, NDP, Conservatives
Ottawa: So, it looks like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is doing some serious thinking about his future after his top cabinet minister, Chrystia Freeland, stepped down in mid-December. This surprise move has sparked a lot of chatter about whether Trudeau should resign as the leader of the Liberal party.
With MPs heading back to the House of Commons on January 27, the Liberals seem to be hanging by a thread. The NDP, who have been their allies since the last election, are now saying they won’t support them anymore.
There are a few scenarios that could unfold in the next few weeks. One option is prorogation, which means the government could ask to pause all House of Commons activities. If the Governor General agrees, it would wipe the slate clean for any pending legislation.
When Parliament resumes, they’d have a new throne speech to lay out their plans. They could even bring back some of the legislation that was in the works before the prorogation.
Remember back in 2008 when Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament right before a non-confidence vote? That was a big deal, and it helped him avoid being replaced by an NDP-Liberal coalition.
Another possibility is a non-confidence vote. The Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, and NDP are all ready to take down the Liberal government. If they pass a non-confidence motion, it could lead to an immediate election.
There’s a chance this could happen as soon as January 30, thanks to Conservative MP John Williamson’s plan to push a motion through the public accounts committee. He’s set to introduce it on January 7 and is ready to keep scheduling meetings if the Liberals try to stall.
If the motion passes, it’ll go to the House of Commons for more debate and could be voted on soon after. The Liberals have managed to survive past non-confidence motions with NDP support, but that seems unlikely now. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has made it clear they’ll bring their own motion forward, no matter who’s leading the Liberals.
All three opposition parties will have their chance to introduce non-confidence motions before March 26, but it’s up to the government House leader to decide when those days happen.
If Trudeau decides to step down, it’ll kick off a leadership contest. The party has to call a meeting within 27 days to set the rules for that contest. There’s also a provision for the caucus to weigh in on who the interim leader will be.
There’s no set timeline for how long a leadership contest has to last, but candidates need to gather signatures and submit their nomination at least 90 days before the vote. All registered party members get a say, and each electoral district has equal weight in the voting process.
If Trudeau sticks around, he’s got the final say on whether he stays or goes. There’s no way for the caucus to kick him out. If he decides to tough it out, he could lead the party into the next election, which is due by October. But with the opposition eager to push for an early election, Canadians might be heading to the polls sooner than expected.
It’s looking pretty tough for the Liberals to secure a fourth term, especially since polls show the Conservatives have been leading for quite a while now.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on January 2, 2025.