Olive Oil Producer Expects Much Better Harvest This Year, Will Prices Drop?
With a promising olive harvest ahead, Canadians wonder if grocery prices will finally decrease
Olive Oil, Canada, Prices, Harvest, Economy
Toronto: The world’s largest olive oil producer is gearing up for a much better harvest in the 2024-2025 season. After some tough years, this raises a big question: will Canadian shoppers see lower prices in stores?
This topic has been on everyone’s mind lately. Unfavorable weather, like droughts, has really hit major olive oil exporters hard.
Yahoo Canada spoke with an expert who mentioned that whether prices drop in Canadian stores depends on a few key factors.
Dr. Sarah Duni, a researcher focused on food security in Canada, pointed out three main things that will affect olive oil prices next year: climate conditions, the economy, and local production.
The first big factor is climate. It’s crucial to see how weather will impact the upcoming olive harvest.
“Top producers have seen drops of 40 to 60 percent in the last year,” she told Yahoo Canada. “So, the big question is whether climate will allow for enough supply.”
Olive trees thrive in Mediterranean climates, which means hot, dry summers and mild winters. That’s why countries like Spain, Italy, and Turkey are leading the way in olive oil production.
Next up is the Canadian dollar. How it performs against the Euro will also play a role in import prices.
“If the Canadian dollar gets stronger, importing olive oil will cost less,” Duni explained. “That means lower prices at the store. But if it weakens, prices will go up.”
Lastly, local production could help lower prices too. While Canada isn’t a major player in olive oil, parts of B.C. are showing some potential.
“With innovative methods like high-density planting and greenhouses, we could see local production grow,” she said. “This way, we won’t rely so much on imports.”
Market research shows that Canada’s olive oil market is expected to grow by 6.5 percent from 2024 to 2030. However, Canada only made up 0.7 percent of the global olive oil market revenue in 2023.
According to World Population Review, Spain was the top olive oil producer in 2024, with 766.4 tons, followed by Italy, Turkey, Tunisia, and Greece.
Duni acknowledges that Canada’s local production is still in its early stages and won’t solve high prices overnight.
“With inflation and import costs, it’s hard to say if this new local market in B.C. will hold its value throughout the year,” she said. “It’s not the only solution, but it’s part of the answer. We can expect steady growth in this acquired taste.”
The drop in olive oil supply over the past few years has really impacted prices. A recent Reddit post highlighted this, sparking a lively discussion among users.
People shared their frustrations about the high prices of olive oil in Canadian grocery stores, wondering where prices might go next with inflation and climate change.
One user even posted a picture showing 1-liter bottles of olive oil priced at $22.99.
Another user, PhillGuy, commented, “And that’s why I stopped using olive oil altogether.”
Meanwhile, Samness45 mentioned they now buy their olive oil at Costco, which was one of the main reasons they got a membership there.