Inquiry Reveals Baby Death Spike at Lucy Letby’s Unit Was Not Extreme
A public inquiry hears that the rise in baby deaths at the unit was not alarming enough to trigger an external investigation
Lucy Letby, Countess of Chester Hospital, Cheshire, UK, neonatal unit
Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistics expert from Cambridge, shared insights about the mortality rates at the hospital where Lucy Letby committed her crimes. The inquiry learned that there were eight deaths in 2015 and five more in the first half of 2016, compared to just one to three deaths per year from 2010 to 2014.
Sir David mentioned that while the 2015 numbers should have raised some local concerns, they didn’t stand out enough to be classified as an outlier. He explained that in the UK’s 150 neonatal units, it’s not unusual to see a similar “signal” at least once a year purely by chance.
Letby, who started working at the hospital in 2012, went on to murder seven babies between June 2015 and June 2016. She’s also been convicted of attempting to kill seven others. Sir David emphasized that just because the numbers increased doesn’t mean there’s a specific cause behind it, and it should be looked into further.
He pointed out that the mortality rate at the Countess of Chester was only about 10% higher than the average for similar units, which isn’t enough to label it as an outlier. Letby is currently serving 15 life sentences for her crimes, and the inquiry, led by Lady Justice Thirlwall, is wrapping up its final week of evidence in Liverpool. The findings are expected to be released this autumn.