Inflation and Retail Sales Mark the Start of 2025 Economic Calendar
The economic landscape for 2025 kicks off with inflation and retail sales data, crucial for interest rate decisions in Australia.
Australia, Inflation, Retail Sales, Reserve Bank of Australia, Consumer Price Index
Melbourne: The economic scene for 2025 is heating up with the first big reports coming in. We’re talking about inflation numbers that everyone’s been waiting for.
People are really hoping that a lower consumer price index could lead to an interest rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets in February. That would be a nice break for borrowers.
This Wednesday, we’ll get the consumer price index for November, which is super important. But the central bank usually pays more attention to the quarterly report coming later in January.
Retail sales are expected to get a boost from all those Black Friday deals. It’s a great time for shoppers, and it should show up in the numbers.
Economists from the National Australia Bank think the November inflation rate will rise to 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in October. The market is guessing it’ll be around 2.2%.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics report might show some effects from electricity subsidies and rising fuel prices, according to NAB.
But there’s a measure called the trimmed mean that’s less affected by those temporary factors. It might drop to 3.4% from 3.5% year-on-year.
NAB’s senior markets economist, Taylor Nugent, mentioned that the central bank might overlook the impact of electricity rebates on inflation data.
He also said that while the December quarter inflation might look good, the real situation is still on track to exceed the RBA’s cautious stance from November.
There’s still some uncertainty in the job market. The last strong data was complicated by comments from the central bank suggesting things aren’t as tight as they seemed.
While there’s a chance for a rate cut in February, NAB thinks May is more likely, given the overall data and the RBA’s current policy.
Mark your calendars! The central bank will announce its next interest rate decision on February 18.
Economists are also keeping an eye on the November retail sales figures coming out Thursday, which should reflect the Black Friday shopping frenzy.
On Tuesday, we’ll also see building approvals data for November, and there are more reports lined up for the week, including job vacancies and household spending.
Meanwhile, the Australian stock market is expected to open strong on Monday after a big day on Wall Street, where stocks surged on hopes of interest rate cuts in the US.
The Dow Jones jumped nearly 340 points, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq also saw a nice boost, thanks to companies like Tesla and Nvidia.
All in all, it looks like a promising start to the week for the ASX, with futures pointing to a positive opening.