Goldman Pushes Back $3,000 Gold Forecast on Fewer US Rate Cuts

New York: So, Goldman Sachs just announced that they’re not expecting gold to hit that $3,000 mark this year after all. They’ve pushed their forecast back to mid-2026. Why? Well, they think the Federal Reserve won’t be cutting rates as much as they previously thought.

According to their analysts, the demand for gold-backed ETFs is likely to drop because of slower monetary easing in 2025. They now predict gold will reach around $2,910 an ounce by the end of this year. It seems like the uncertainty after the US elections has also played a role in this shift.

The analysts mentioned that there are two opposing forces at play. On one hand, there’s lower speculative demand, but on the other, central banks are still buying gold. They believe this balance has kept gold prices pretty stable lately. Looking ahead, they expect central banks to keep buying about 38 tons of gold each month until mid-2026.

Last year was a wild ride for gold, with prices jumping 27% thanks to monetary easing and safe-haven demand. But things have cooled off a bit since November, especially after Trump’s election win boosted the dollar. Now, with the Fed being more cautious about rate cuts, gold is feeling the pressure.

Goldman’s economists have revised their expectations for interest rate cuts this year down to 75 basis points, from 100. They think inflation is trending lower, which is a bit more cautious than what the market is currently pricing in. They’re also not convinced that any policy changes under Trump’s second term will lead to higher interest rates.