Early Winter Snowpack Looks Good, But Drought and Heat Threaten
Nevada’s winter water reserves depend on upcoming precipitation and snowmelt, with current conditions showing promise but uncertainty remains.
Las Vegas, Nevada, Drought, Snowpack, Climate, La Niña
Las Vegas: October was a scorcher, the hottest on record! The National Weather Service says it’s been over 160 days without measurable rain. That’s wild!
As we roll into winter, Nevada’s water situation is looking pretty dicey. It all hinges on how much snow and rain we get in the next few months.
Lake Mead, our main water source, is doing a bit better this fall—up nearly 18 feet from two years ago when it hit rock bottom. Thanks to conservation efforts and some decent winters, we’re seeing a little improvement.
But don’t get too comfy; it’s still at its second-lowest point in five years. We really need another wet winter to keep those water reserves healthy.
Right now, it’s too early to tell if we’ll have above-normal snowpack, but there are some good signs. By mid-December, the Upper Colorado Basin snowpack was at 89% of the median. And NOAA says we might see above-normal precipitation through January.
Snow levels in northern Nevada and the Eastern Sierra are looking good too, ranging from 106% to 157% of what we’d expect this time of year. That’s a relief!
Plus, a big storm system is rolling through northern California, expected to drop 2 to 8 inches of rain. Fingers crossed that helps us out!
But hold on—there are still three months left in winter. Right now, we’re only at about 25-30% of the median peak snowpack for spring. So, there’s still a lot that can change.
And then there’s La Niña, which could mess with our snowpack this winter. It usually brings less rain and warmer temps to the southern U.S., including Nevada. But it might also mean more snow for the Pacific Northwest.
In December, the Climate Prediction Center put out a La Niña watch. They think it’ll be weak, so the impact might not be too severe. By spring, we should see things level out.
Scott Handel from NOAA said, “We’re knocking on the door of a weak La Niña.” He added there’s a good chance—over 70%—that it’ll happen this winter, but a strong one is unlikely.
Unfortunately, drought conditions in southern Nevada have been creeping in since September. With October being the hottest month on record, it’s no surprise we haven’t seen any rain in ages.
The Spring Mountains, which usually help recharge our groundwater, are still waiting for snow. It’s pretty unusual not to have any snowpack by now.
Experts say drought conditions will likely stick around into spring. And temperatures across Nevada are expected to stay above average for January.
On a national level, 2024 is shaping up to be the warmest year on record, with nearly 39% of the contiguous U.S. in drought.
Karin Gleason from NOAA said, “It is virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record.” That’s a bit concerning, don’t you think?