December US jobs report to cap year of moderate hiring

Bloomberg: It looks like US employers slowed down their hiring in December, wrapping up a year of steady job growth. Economists think this trend will keep going into 2025.

Payrolls are expected to rise by about 160,000 last month. This comes after a few months of unusual activity due to hurricanes and strikes. So, the average monthly job growth for 2024 is projected to be around 180,000. That’s lower than the previous three years but still shows a solid labor market.

The jobs data coming out on Friday probably won’t change the Federal Reserve’s view. They think they can ease up on interest rate cuts since the economy is holding strong, even if inflation is coming down slowly. Investors are also keen to see the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting for more insights.

As for the unemployment rate, it’s expected to stay steady at 4.2%. Hourly earnings growth might cool off a bit, which fits with a labor market that isn’t driving inflation anymore.

On another note, a Labor Department report is expected to show that job openings didn’t change much in November. There are still about a million more vacancies than before the pandemic, and the ratio of openings to unemployed people is back to pre-pandemic levels.

Wall Street seems to think that the US economy will keep doing well in 2025. They expect December’s job numbers to be impressive, with many sectors showing better hiring. Some of this might just be a bounce back from the weak numbers in October due to the hurricanes.

In the coming week, several US central bankers will be speaking publicly, including Fed governors. Meanwhile, Canada will release its jobs data after a jump in unemployment last month.

Globally, inflation data will be a big focus, with China possibly nearing deflation and the euro zone seeing a rise. It’s going to be an interesting week for the economy!