Battleground Seats Set to Determine Albo’s Political Future
Key electorates in NSW and Victoria will play a crucial role in the upcoming federal election, impacting Albanese’s leadership.
NSW, Victoria, Albanese, Labor, Coalition, Election 2025
Sydney: A top pollster has pointed out that a few key seats in New South Wales and Victoria will be pivotal in deciding the outcome of the 2025 federal election. Voters are expected to head to the polls by May 17, although the exact date is still under wraps.
Anthony Albanese is keeping his cards close to his chest about the timing. For Labor to keep its majority, they can only afford to lose two of their current 78 seats.
On the flip side, the Coalition has a tough road ahead. They need to snag 21 extra seats to govern outright without relying on crossbench support.
Pollster Kos Samaras highlighted that the election will likely be won in NSW and Victoria, where several seats are too close to call. In NSW, he pointed out electorates like Robertson, Gilmore, and Hunter, along with Sydney seats like Macarthur and Bennelong.
In Victoria, key battlegrounds include Corangamite, Dunkley, and Aston. Samaras emphasized that all these seats are very much in play.
The Liberals are also eyeing the Melbourne seat of Chisholm, which they lost to Labor’s Carina Garland in 2022. This is where Peter Dutton is set to hold his first campaign-style rally this Sunday.
Another challenge for the Coalition is the blue-ribbon seat of Bradfield, especially with the retirement of long-time MP Paul Fletcher. Teal candidate Nicolette Boele is gearing up for a fight there.
Salesforce executive Gisele Kapterian has been pre-selected as the Liberal candidate, beating out high-profile contender Warren Mundine.
Meanwhile, the Muslim Vote and groups like Muslim Votes Matter could shake things up in NSW and Victoria, even though their campaigns have been relatively quiet so far.
Two Muslim candidates have already emerged in Sydney seats held by prominent ministers, protesting Labor’s stance on Gaza. Ahmed Ouf is running in Blaxland, while Ziad Basyouny is contesting in Watson.
Samaras, whose firm worked with Climate 200 during the last federal campaign, noted that independent campaigns often start slow but can gain momentum as election day approaches.
He pointed to Allegra Spender, a Teal independent, who saw her polling rise significantly during her campaign, ultimately unseating the Liberal incumbent.
In Queensland, Labor is struggling, holding only five of the 29 seats. The Coalition has 21, and the Greens have three. If Labor wants to regain a majority, they’ll need to make gains in Queensland, but that seems unlikely right now.
Warren Entsch’s retirement from Leichhardt could open the door for Labor’s Matt Smith to take the seat from the LNP’s Jeremy Neal.
In Western Australia, Labor is expected to hold onto most of its seats, thanks in part to the popularity of former premier Mark McGowan. However, there’s a new seat, Bullwinkel, that could swing either way.
In Tasmania, Labor is hoping to gain ground, especially in Braddon, where they’re fielding senator Anne Urquhart. The swing seat of Bass is also on their radar, but the Coalition is expected to hold strong there.
In the Northern Territory, Labor needs to protect its seats, particularly Lingiari, which has a slim margin. They’re in a better position in the greater Darwin seat of Solomon, which has a safer margin.
Overall, it’s shaping up to be a nail-biter of an election, with key seats in play that could change the political landscape.