Ample supply, slow demand to temper oil price gains in 2025:Reuters poll

Bengaluru: So, it looks like oil prices are going to be pretty stable, hovering around $70 a barrel in 2025. A recent Reuters poll suggests that weak demand from China and an increase in global supplies are going to keep things in check.

The poll, which included 31 economists and analysts, predicts that Brent crude will average about $74.33 per barrel next year. That’s actually a slight drop from earlier forecasts. This year, Brent has been around $80 a barrel, but it seems like demand is slipping, especially from China, which is the biggest importer.

For U.S. crude, the average is expected to be around $70.86 per barrel. That’s a bit higher than last month’s estimate. Experts think that non-OPEC countries are ramping up production, which is keeping the market well-supplied. Even if China’s economy bounces back, the shift towards electric vehicles might limit how much demand grows.

Most analysts in the poll believe the oil market will have a surplus next year. Some even think supply could outstrip demand by about 1.2 million barrels per day. OPEC+ has decided to delay increasing oil output until April 2025, which shows they’re cautious about the market conditions.

They’re expecting that the growth in supply from non-OPEC countries will outpace demand growth. So, it looks like OPEC+ is in a tight spot with limited options to raise production. Global oil demand is projected to grow, but not by much, which is a bit of a bummer.

On top of that, there are some big political changes coming, especially with Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025. Some analysts think that might affect oil prices, but others believe U.S. politics don’t really have as much impact as people think. However, if sanctions on Iranian oil exports get tougher, that could give prices a little boost in the short term.