2025 NFL Draft scenarios: How Patriots can secure No. 1 pick in Week 18

Patriots Eye No. 1 Pick in 2025 NFL Draft with Week 18 Loss

The Patriots have a strong chance to secure the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft by losing in Week 18 against the Bills

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New England, NFL, 2025 Draft, Patriots, Buffalo Bills

New England: The Patriots are in a unique spot as they head into Week 18. They have a solid 78.1% chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, according to ESPN Analytics. The Tennessee Titans are way behind at just 11.9%. No matter what happens, the Patriots are guaranteed a top-five pick.

Four teams still have a shot at the top pick: the Patriots, Titans, Giants, and Browns. But the Patriots haven’t had the No. 1 pick since 1993 when they chose Drew Bledsoe. That pick turned out pretty well for them.

Usually, teams want to end the season on a high note with a win. But for the Patriots, it’s the opposite. They need to lose against the Bills to secure that top pick and bring in some much-needed talent for next season.

This draft class is looking promising, especially with two standout quarterbacks: Shedeur Sanders from Colorado and Cam Ward from Miami. The Patriots really want to be in the top two picks to grab one of these guys.

So, what’s the game plan for the Patriots as they face the Bills? If they lose, they lock in the No. 1 pick. They have the lowest strength of schedule, so if they tie with other teams at 3-14, they’ll win the tiebreaker.

If they win against the Bills, things get tricky. They could end up with the No. 2, 3, 4, or even 5 pick, depending on how other teams do. The Bills have already clinched their playoff spot, so they might not play their starters.

Other teams like the Texans and Ravens have their own playoff scenarios to consider, which could affect the Patriots’ draft position. The Eagles are also in a similar situation against the Giants.

In the worst-case scenario, if the Patriots win and other results go against them, they could drop to No. 5. But that’s a long shot. The focus is on securing that top pick and setting up for a brighter future.

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